Despite Being 27 and Only Making 2 All-Star Teams, Some Believe Steph Curry Is the Greatest NBA Shooter Ever
Las Vegas Strip sportsbooks and online bookmaker sites have seen solid betting action in the days since the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers won their respective conference title series. After four years of the Miami Heat playing in the Finals, NBA fans appear to enjoy the idea of two new teams (and fan bases) having a shot at the title.
This is the first time since 1975 the Golden State Warriors have been to the NBA Finals. It has been since 1967, when Wilt Chamberlain was a Warrior, since the team won an NBA title. The Cleveland Cavaliers have never won a title. They made the Finals once in 2007, when they were swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Lebron James will relish the opportunity to play someone besides the Spurs in the Finals, as he has played them 3 of his 5 trips to the NBA Finals, going 1-2 in those appearances.
Odds of Winning the Series
The Warriors are the consensus favorite to win the NBA championship, though. Below is a table of the average betting odds for each team winning the series. Each of the wagers below is available at all the major sportsbooks, though the betting odds might vary from one bookmaker to another. The Warriors are considered the favorites in the series, so people wanting the best favorites need to wager on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Because the Cavs have the world’s best player, people are going to be tempted to wager on Cleveland. The fact that Lebron James has lost 3 out of 5 NBA Finals series in which he’s played might give those same gamblers hesitation, though.
Warriors Win in 7 Games – 13:5
Warriors Win in 6 Games – 4:1
Warriors Win in 5 Games – 7:2
Warriors Win in 4 Games – 8:1
Cavaliers Win in 7 Games – 6:1
Cavaliers Win in 6 Games – 5:1
Cavaliers Win in 5 Games – 12:1
Cavaliers Win in 4 Games – 18:1
Golden State Warriors Preview
The Golden State Warriors looked impressive in reaching the finals. They swept the young Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans in the 1st round. They beat the tough Memphis Grizzlies in a 6-game series, after going down 2-1 with a loss at home, where they had been near-unbeatable in the regular season. In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors beat the Houston Rockets 4-1, after winning the first 3 games.
Cleveland Cavaliers Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers also looked impressive reaching the finals, despite several low points. The Cavs beat the Boston Celtics in four games to open the playoffs, in a series best-known for the injury to Kevin Love. In the 2nd round of the playoffs, Lebron James’s team had its toughest test, beating the Chicago Bulls 4-2 in a series where they went down 2-1 on Derek Rose’s game-winning buzzer beater. The Cavs won Game 4 of that series on Lebron’s game-winning shot, which propelled the team to 7-straight postseason wins. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs beat the #1-seeded Atlanta Hawks in a 4-game sweep.
Therefore, the Cavs are riding high coming into the finals. The team also has the most experience in championship series, with players like Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, and Kendrick Perkins on the bench, though those players have given marginal contributions in the playoffs. The Cavs’ experience gap therefore comes down to Lebron James himself. Still, that could be huge, because this is his sixth NBA Finals to date–and his fifth in a row.
How the Series Might Unfold
The Cavs’ best chance is to steal Game 1 out in San Francisco, because that is when the experience factor should be at its greatest. Stephen Curry and company might come out with the adrenaline high and miss early shots. If they get down, then the pressure starts to work against them.
Another scenario is something like the 2006 NBA Finals, when the Dallas Mavericks won the first 2 games at home, then lost the middle 3 games in Miami. In that series, the experience factor did not show itself while the Mavs were at home. Once on the road against the experiences stars, the Mavericks had no answer for Shaquille O’Neal and (especially) Dwanye Wade.
How the Warriors Might Win
Of course, those who believe the Warriors are the superior team are likely to see them getting up 2-0 at home in San Francisco, taking 1-of-3 when they visit Cleveland in Games 3-5, and then winning in 6 when they come home to the Bay Area for Game 6.
The Warriors had the best home record on the season, as they went 40-3 at home in the regular season. In the playoffs, they went 7-1 for a combined 47-4 record on the season. With such a decided advantage and the Cavs depleted due to injuries to Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, and Anderson Varejao, it places pressure on Lebron James to be absolutely great. Lebron says he is playing the best he has ever played, so perhaps his greatness will singlehandedly give Cleveland its first title since 1964. More likely, Kyrie Irving would have to take his game to a new level.
NBA Finals MVP Odds – Prop Bets
The 2015 NBA MVP Stephen Curry is the odds-on favorite to be the NBA Finals MVP at most sportsbooks. Lebron James, widely considered the best player in the world these past 5 to 8 years, has the second-best odds.
MVP Voting
Casual gamblers need to remember that the Finals MVP works largely like the NBA MVP voting, with a slight twist. In the regular season, the best player on the best team or most surprisingly good player team tends to have the edge in the MVP voting. Being the best player sometimes coincides with one of those players, but often, the best player does not win the NBA MVP Award.
If so, then Michael Jordan would have won the award at least 10 times, instead of “just” 5 times. If so, then Shaquille O’Neal would have won the award several times in a row the first few years of the 21st century, instead of just in 2000. Under the same circumstances, Lebron James would have won the award over the past 5 years, at the very least.
Ask Which Team Wins the Series
In the NBA Finals, another dynamic is at work. To win the Finals MVP Award, your team almost always has to win the series. If you do not believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to win the NBA Finals series, then you should not bet on Lebron James to win the award. Most people believe the Golden State Warriors have the better team, especially considering Kevin Love is out for the season and Kyrie Irving is gimpy.
Speaking of Kyrie Irving is the next-best bet. He ranges from +800 to +2000, so if you think the young point guard for the Cavs is ready for a coming-out party, then he is a good bet. If you want an alternative option with the Warriors, then consider Klay Thompson or Draymond Green. Klay Thompson ranges from +1200 to +2200 at most sportsbooks, while Draymond Green ranges from +1200 to +1600.
Klay Thompson’s Odds
The reason Klay Thompson’s odds are so disparate from one sportsbook to the next is his injury risk. Thompson took a knee to the head in the Game 5 defeat of the Houston Rockets. Later, he experienced concussion-like symptoms. There is some question whether he’ll play Game 1, while the injury could have lingering side effects–both physical or psychological. On the physical side of things, Thompson reported vision problems, which is awful for a shooter. On the psychological side, Klay Thompson might not go for as many loose balls or might not be 100% ready to go to start the series.
Other players getting odds for the Cavaliers are JR Smith (+5000 range), Matthew Dellavedova (+10000 range), and Timofey Mozgov (+10000 or more). Players receiving odds for Golden State include Iman Shumpert (+5000 to +15000 range), Harrison Barnes (+5000 to +15000), and Tristan Thompson (+2500 to +15000).
