Jahlil Okafor Needs to Be Superior If Duke Is Going to Upset the Wisconsin Badgers
The Wisconsin Badgers enter Monday night’s NCAA Mens National Championship Game as 1-point favorites to beat the Duke Blue Devils. Both teams come into the title game as #1 seeds, but the Badgers just did the seemingly impossible in dispatching the 38-0 Kentucky Wildcats, who were the only team in men’s college basketball history to start the season with 38 wins.
Despite being the favorites, this game is a virtual pick ’em for sports betters. The 1-point line is the smallest point spread for the final game of March Madness in 20 years. While Wisconsin has the prestige that comes with beating the consensus #1 team, Duke has the pedigree of having won 4 national titles in the past 25 years. Duke has gone 4-0 this season as an underdog, including a December 3 game in which the Blue Devils defeated the Badgers, 80-70 (despite being 4-point underdogs at the time).
Twice as Much Money Bet on Badgers
The betting money has been on the Badgers. The line has moved in the past 2 days in Wisconsin’s favor, as two times the amount of money has been wagered on the Badgers. That is natural enough, given the amount of media attention which has focused on the team in the aftermath of its 7-point victory over John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats.
Even more attention came Wisconsin’s way in the wake of the big victory on Saturday, after Kentucky’s Andrew Harrison used a racial slur to dismiss Badgers’ star Frank Kaminsky in the post-game news conference. Harrison later apologized for the remark both in-public and in a phone conversation to the Wisconsin star center. Frank Kaminsky, who was voted NCAA Player of the Year for 2014-15 on Sunday, said it was a non-issue, but the public continued to focus on the controversy through much of the day.
Is It a Letdown Game?
Some gamblers are betting on a let-down game by the Badgers in the championship. Wisconsin not only had an emotionally-draining game against the team which knocked them out of last year’s tournament on a last-second shot, but they also have answered questions for two days on that game–which might naturally focus their attention on past accomplishments and not on the task at-hand. Meanwhile, Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke Blue Devils have been preparing for the biggest game of the season.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan addressed those concerns to his team on Sunday. He used a number of examples from sports history to remind his team they still have one game to finish their journey, including the 1980 US Hockey Team.
Duke Compared to Finland
In the 1980 Lake Placid Olympics, the US National Team defeated the seemingly unbeatable Soviet hockey team in an emotionally-draining 4-3 contest on Friday night. What many forget is that did not cinch the Gold Medal for the US team. Instead, they had to turn around and win a match against a tough Finland squad on Sunday morning or else lose their chance to make history.
Through 2 periods of the match against Finland, the US team was flat and uninspired, so they were behind 2-1 going into the 3rd period of the match. Between the 2nd and 3rd period, an angry coach Herb Brooks came into the locker room and told the US players they would “never forgive themselves” if they lost the match. The team found the spark and scored 3 goals in the final period to win the match 4-2 and secure the gold medal.
Bo Ryan told his team on Sunday, “Duke is a really good team. I think Finland was a good team because they got to the finals. So, yes, we know we’ve got 40 more (minutes), as I’ve said a thousand times. But we know we got some work to do. I think last night’s game simply says, ‘OK, it puts you in position now to go after the championship.’”
Jahlil Okafor Is the Key for Duke
Perhaps a bigger obstacle than a let-down game is Duke center Jahlil Okafor. As I predicted in an article late last week, Frank Kaminsky schooled the highly-touted and talented underclassmen from Kentucky, because they had not developed their games over 4 years of college play. Jahlil Okafor has a more developed offensive game which could put pressure on Kaminsky in ways the Kentucky squad did not. Foul trouble also could become an issue.
Under those circumstances, Duke has a real chance in the title game on Monday night. When the betting public moves the Las Vegas spread, smart betters often bet against the public and with Vegas. If so, then the Duke Blue Devils could be the national champions at the end of the night.
Wisconsin Should Be Ready
The Wisconsin Badgers have been to the Final Four before. They are a veteran college basketball team. Also, one gets the sense they went into Saturday’s game expecting to win. I don’t expect a letdown in the national championship game. It’s hard to overlook the prize at the end of the night.
In that case, the ultimate winner comes down to which is the best team. Given the front court play of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, and Nigel Hayes, I give the edge to Wisconsin. Okafor needs to have a superior game tonight, or else Wisconsin’s front three needs to face significant foul trouble. If neither of those happen, I expect Wisconsin to complete the dream season and win their first national championship in men’s basketball.
