The NFL was missing stars like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in September, but new stars are emerging.
Gambling on the National Football League is down significantly in 2016, compared to where it was at the same point in the 2015 NFL season. The poor gambling turnover is another sign that the NFL is facing a loss in popularity.
NFL Viewership Down by 12%
Throughout the 2016 NFL season, viewer ratings have been down. A number of theories have been proposed for the lower TV ratings, including the theory that the schedule has been unlucky and key prime time games have not been competitive.
The gambling numbers would indicate that in-game factors like competitiveness is not the problem.
Gambling takes place before a game begins and therefore cannot be based on entertainment factor. A deeper problem appears to be affecting viewership.
Decline in College and Pro Football
Last week, $308.5 million was wagered on college and pro football at Nevada sportsbooks. That represents a $6 million decrease from 2015, despite the football schedule having a similar number of games. Of course, that is a slight dip compared to the massive increase in gambling since 2005. From 2005 to 2015, revenues from Nevada sports betting doubled on a per-year basis.
While Las Vegas sportsbook do not distinguish between NFL and NCAA football betting when they release numbers, anecdotal evidence suggests that the NFL is the factor dragging down the numbers. Las Vegas Strip bookmakers say it is the NFL product which is causing issues.
Betting on Baseball and NBA Games
Making the dip more perplexing is the betting on other major American sports. Major League Baseball betting figures are up, perhaps due to the Chicago Cubs appearance in the World Series. National Basketball Association betting figures are approaching levels not seen since the Michael Jordan era.
Gambling on other sports might be one explanation for the dip in NFL betting revenues, but it is hardly the only one. NFL officials and media have put forward a number of theories, some with more weight than others. For instance, some have claimed that interest in the US presidential elections has dampened enthusiasm for viewership. Others believe that the schedule of games has been disappointing, especially with blowouts factoring into the decline.
Colin Kaepernick National Anthem Protests
Seton Hall University conducted a poll of 841 adults across the United States on October 24 to October 26, asking them what would make them less likely to watch an NFL game. Those polled were asked about seven different factors, with their options “Yes”, “No”, and “I Don’t Know”.
56% of those polled said the National Anthem protests by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and other players was likely to affect their viewing of NFL games. 50% of respondents said the election coverage of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had distracted them from watching games.
Domestic Violence and Effects of Concussions
Another 47% said the NFL’s handling of domestic violence cases had affected their viewing habits. New York Giants field goal kicker Josh Brown has had a high-profile case, in which he was suspended only 1 game. After the Ray Rice case two years ago, the NFL had set a policy in which players found guilty of domestic abuse would serve 6-game suspensions.
Saturation of the television market received a 44% vote, while increases interest in MLB baseball received 39%. Rounding out the survey, the effects of football-caused concussions and overall decline in the quality of games each received 33% “Yes” votes.
Retirements and Roger Goodell
The lack of star power is partly the result of retirements and partly the result of the NFL commissioner’s penchant for suspending players for more types of infractions. The 4-game Deflate-Gate suspension of Tom Brady likely affected ratings of New England Patriots games, because the team was without its Hall of Fame-quality quarterback. The suspension of Le’Veon Bell for 3 games might not have had the same impact, but the retirement of Peyton Manning certainly hurt ratings of Denver Broncos games, as fewer people would like to watch Trevor Siemien play football.
People might not blame the NFL Front Office for Manning’s retirement, because he was clearly declining in his last season. NFL writers have speculated Peyton Manning‘s decision to retire was spurred on by the Al Jazeera case claiming Peyton Manning had used HGH.
While the person Al Jazeera cited later recanted and said he made up names, the NFL forced players to speak with investigators. Some believe Manning retired, concerned that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell might try to ruin his reputation with a Deflate-Gate style suspension. Whatever the case, the NFL was without some of its biggest stars early in the NFL season.
Oversaturation on Television
Roger Goodell’s decision to expand NFL coverage to every single Thursday night of the season also has led some to suggest the field is oversaturated. One reason the NFL flourishes over MLB and NBA ratings is it appeals to the casual fan. Viewers only need to tune in one day a week to substantially keep track of the league’s games, besides a single Monday night game. With the Thursday night game, hardly two days pass without a game on television.
Beyond the regular season, the NFL has become more of a 365-day league in recent years. With the NFL Combine, free agency, the NFL Draft, and OTAs, there are events throughout the year. The frequent scandals fill-in the blanks throughout most of the rest of the year, so the season seems to never end. During the season, many fans play fantasy football or daily fantasy football, where previous generations only gambled on sports. All-in-all, the NFL is more high-impact than it once was.
With that in mind, gamblers and viewers might be facing a kind of burnout scenario with the National Football League. Something has to be behind the decline in sports betting on the NFL, just as something has to be behind the decline in viewership. Whatever that ‘something’ is, the two are likely connected.
